Climate Change and Adaptation in Nigeria:Some Background to Nigeria’s Response–Part Ⅱ
【摘要】：This part of the larger paper reports the analysis of long term rainfall and temperature data sets from synoptic stations, covering the Forest, Guinea Savanna and the Sudano-Sahelian zones of Nigeria. The data were analyzed, using the least square algorithm, the second order polynomial and Z-transfromation. Although the results of the trends in rainfall, using a second order polynomial, show that there are declining trends since 1961 up to 1983 and an upward trend thereafter till 2008 in all the zones, tests of significance show that the observed downward trends are statistically significant in the Sudano- Sahelian and Forest while the upward trends were statistically significant in the Sudano-Sahelian alone. The results of the wet and dry year frequency show that the Sudano-Sahelian has the highest drought frequency while the situation remains the same in the other two zones; extreme wet conditions are highest in the Guinea Savanna, followed by Sudano-Sahelian and lastly, Forest zone. In the post climatological normal period, none of the zones experienced significantly dry condition. The study further show that the climate change scenarios on rainfall in West Africa are uncertain and that increased rainfall in the Sahel may be more than initially envisaged. The results obtained for the minimum and maximum temperatures generally indicate upward trends between 1961 and 2007.