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《第十二届工业工程和工程管理国际会议论文集(一)》2005年
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A NOVEL APPROACH TO SIMULATE COMPLEX PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES

C.Schlick  T.Licht  
【摘要】:正Project planning methods and tools still have weaknesses when it comes to modeling weakly structured work processes,task interdependencies or uncertainty. Particularly when managing parallel product development projects it is challenging to plan task assignments to personnel,to predict the resulting work load,the temporal course of work progress and to model these issues in a consistent framework. A rather unrealistic project scheduling often occurs which has not much in common with the real course of work progress. It is a well known fact that importantt asks may then be neglected for the benefit of urgent tasks-leading to an operational precipitance at the end of the project. Exceeded deadlines or development results of poor quality are common consequences. Existing simulation approaches only theoretically provide some help here. Due to laborious definition of predecessor-successor relations of tasks,even if tasks are practically performed in parallel,an effective practical deployment has not taken place yet. In this paper a person-centered,actor-driven simulation approach is proposed that can cope with highly parallel tasks. The task execution sequence is determined by means of a bounded rational choice model. The unfolding model behavior is very realistic and can therefore provide a good basis for predicting project duration and costs. Test statistical results from a case study show that the simulated project duration differs not significantly from the empirically observed project duration.

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