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《Collection of 2009 International Forum on Water Resources and Sustainable Development》2009年
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二十一世纪水资源与能源变化预测(英文)

Alexander Kislov  Eugenie Evstigneev  Galina Sourkova  
【摘要】:正Global warming forms changes of those natural resources which depend on climate.These are power resources(wind and hydropower resources,expenses of energy for heating or cooling),water resources(the volume of a river runoff is an estimation of total potential of water resources),agroclimatic and ecological resources etc.Dynamics of resources depends both on planned economic activities,and from climate changes.In this work the climatic component of changes is discussed.The forecast of resources demands to solve following tasks:1)modelling and forecast of a climate within the framework of the scenario of greenhouse gases change,2)quantitative expression of a resource in terms of variables simulated by climate model.Projecting results used in this paper are based on the data of the CMIP3(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)in the framework of Working Group on Coupled Modelling.This project includes the best world climate models.Results of modelling and the data of meteorological observations expressed by probability distribution functions(or empirical orthogonal functions)were compared.It was shown,that the modelling data is much more reliable over flat territories.In result 11 most successful models were selected.They are used for climate forecast within the framework of known IPCC scenario?2 at 21 century Estimations of changes of the river runoff volumes and conditions of land moistening have allowed to determine that the serious reduction of resources is expected in the southern part of the East European plain.Its central and northern parts practically will not demonstrate changes.

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