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《第33届中国气象学会年会 S1 灾害天气监测、分析与预报》2016年
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What would happen to tropical cyclone size and its destructiveness under ocean warming?

Yuan Sun  Zhong Zhong  Tim Li  Lan Yi  Yijia Hu  Hongchao Wan  
【摘要】:How tropical cyclone(TC) destructiveness depends on global warming is an open issue1-4. A number of previous studies have ignored the effect of TC size change caused by global warming, which results in a significant underestimation of TC destructiveness3,5. Lack of reliable and consistent historical data on TC size limits the confident estimation of linkages between observed trends in TC size and in the sea surface temperature under the global climate warming3. A regional atmospheric model is used in the present study to investigate the response of TC size and destructive potential to sea surface temperature(SST) increase. It is found that a large-scale SST warming can lead to not only TC intensification but also TC size expansion. The mechanism through which the warming increases TC size is through the change of atmospheric convective instability in the outer region. It is the development of a secondary eyewall in the outer region that leads to the increase in TC size. The above numerical model results indicate that TCs will become not only stronger but also larger, and will be unexpectedly more destructive under global warming.

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