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《第八届全国优秀青年气象科技工作者学术研讨会论文汇编》 2014年
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A tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the Baluntai region on the southern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains, China, since A.D. 1464

Tong-wen Zhang  Yu-jiang Yuan  Yu Liu  Wen-shou Wei  Shu-long Yu  Feng Chen  Zi-ang Fan  Hua-ming Shang  Rui-bo Zhang  Li Qin  
【摘要】:JulyeJune precipitation has been reconstructed back to A.D. 1464 for the Baluntai region on the southern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains, China, using the Picea schrenkiana tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains the variance of 51% in the observed precipitation from 1959 to 2005. By employing a 21-year moving average to the reconstruction, nine periods with above average reconstructed precipitation comprised w1474e1503, 1550e1577, 1588e1619, 1658e1713, 1790e1812, 1833e1867, 1890e1907,1923e1944, and 1988e1995w; eight periods with below average reconstruction consisted of 1504e1549,1578e1587, 1620e1657, 1714e1789, 1813e1832, 1868e1889, 1908e1922 and 1945e1987. The wet/dry periods of the reconstructed precipitation correspond well with other reconstructions. Some droughts in the historical documents are also precisely captured in the reconstruction. Precipitation variations for the southern slope of the central Tien Shan Mountains are roughly synchronous with that of the northern slope in the recent w300 year. Power spectral and wavelet analysis demonstrated the existence of significant w100-y, w60-y, w50-y, w16-y, w10-y and w2-y cycles of variability.

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