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Impacts of Autumn-Winter Arctic Sea Ice on Winter Siberian High:Implications for seasonal prediction

【摘要】:The winter Siberian High intensity shows significantly negative correlations with Arctic sea ice concentration anomalies from previous autumn to winter in the Eastern Arctic Ocean and Siberian marginal seas.The results indicate that autumn-winter Arctic sea ice concentration and concurrent sea surface temperature anomalies are responsible for the winter Siberian High and surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia and East Asia.Numerical experiments also support this conclusion and consistently show that the light sea ice concentration cases cause negative surface air temperature anomalies over the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia.A possible mechanism is proposed to explain the association between autumn-winter sea ice concentration and winter Siberian High.The results show that September sea ice concentration provides a potential precursor for winter Siberian High that cannot be predicted only using the tropical sea surface temperature.In recent two decades(1990-2009),a strengthening trend of the winter Siberian High along with surface air temperature decreasing trends in the mid-high latitudes of Asian Continent favor recent frequent cold winters over East Asia.The reason for short-term trends in winter Siberian High and surface air temperature are discussed.

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