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《地理学核心问题与主线——中国地理学会2011年学术年会暨中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所建所五十年庆典论文摘要集》2011年
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Vegetation Distribution on Tibetan Plateau under Climate Change Scenario

【摘要】:正The impact of climate change on distribution of vegetation is an important aspect in studies on the responses of ecosystems to the climate change.Particularly in the sensitive environments of the Tibetan Plateau, vegetation distribution may be significantly affected by climate change.In this research,the coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model,BIOME4,was modified according to the features of vegetation distribution on the Plateau,and the Kappa statistic was used to evaluate the modeling results by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the existing 1:1,000,000 vegetation map of China.The comparison showed that modified model was appropriate for simulating the overall vegetation distribution on the Plateau.With the improved BIOME4 model,possible changes in the vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios.The simulated results suggest that alpine meadows,steppes,and alpine sparse/ cushion vegetation and deserts would shrink,while shrubs,broad-leaved forests,coniferous-broadleaved mixed forests,and coniferous forests would expand.Amongst these types,shrubs,alpine meadows and steppes would change the most.The shrubs vegetation would expand toward the northwest,replacing most alpine meadows and part of steppes,and thus causing their shrinkages.Yet broad-leaved forests and coniferous-broadleaved mixed forests demonstrated smaller changes in their distributions. For all the forest types,the area of coniferous forests would increase the most by spreading to the interior of the Plateau.
【分类号】:Q948

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