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《节能环保 和谐发展——2007中国科协年会论文集(二)》2007年
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Forecasting eco-environment using Set Pair Analysis model:a case study of Wuhan,Hubei province,China

【摘要】:正Ecosystem services are critical to urban ecosystem by underpinning human welfare.Currently,how to dynamically predict ecological footprint is a multidisciplinary issue in the research field of sustainable development.According to the past studies,the traditional models were built to assess the dynamic trends of ecological footprint,by transforming the indeterminacy problems into determinacy ones.Apparently;the indeterminacy information in the studied object was neglected.In this paper;a set pair analysis(SPA)dynamic model was constructed to forecast the total ecological footprint(TEF)from 2004 to 2020.For a case study of Wuhan city,Hubei province in central China,per capita ecological footprint(EF)and biological capacity(BC) were calculated from 1988 to 2003.Because ecological environment is closely connected with and interacts with socio-economy,we put both TEF and related socio-economic factors together to deal with in order to build SPA model and analyzed the development trends of TEF and socio-economic factors in the following 16 years. According to the results,continuous increase of per capita EF(1988-2003)indicated human effect on the district stronger and stronger.The per capita ecological budget was negative all along from 1988 to 2003, indicating that Wuhan's ecological state is it,the ecological deficit.Up to 2020,the district would have been bearing accumulative TEF of 27.82 million gha,which is near 2 times than that of 2003.Although the increase rate of gross domestic product(GDP)would be restricted in a lower level during the general planning period (2005-2020),the urban ecological environmentol burden could not respond to the socio-economic circumstances promptly.Besides,in order to have a zero growth in TEF from 2005 to 2020,while GDP grows by the planning aims,the energy utilization ratio should reach Y6.4×10~4(ton(SCE))~(-1) which it nearly out of question.The adaptability of SPA in ecosystem modeling was presented based on the case study.The paper put forward a novel idea for the prediction of TEF,which has never reported so far.

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