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《International Journal of Environmental Science and Development Vol.6 No.2》2015年
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The Relation between Storm Risk and Wind and Wave Forecast Accuracy in the North Atlantic Ocean

D.Zastrau  M.Schlaak  T.Bruns  R.Elsner  O.Herzog  
【摘要】:Oceanic storms are the main reason for shipping delays in the North Atlantic Ocean,due to the uncertainty in the forecast of tropical cyclones and extra tropical winter storms.This work investigates the relation between the statistical storm risk and the accuracy of the wind and wave forecast in the North Atlantic.The evaluation is based on historical wind and wave forecast data from the German Weather Service(DWD) between August,2005 and November,2010.First of all the regional storm risk in the North Atlantic is assessed.For this purpose 11 different storm clusters have been identified in the historical weather data with a non-parametric clustering algorithm.It shows that the storm risk varies between the storm clusters regionally as well as seasonally.Furthermore a correlation was found between the storm risk and the wind speed and wave height forecast root mean squared error(RMSE).The results allow for estimating future forecast accuracy based on the assessment of the regional and seasonal storm risk.

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